Billionaire Donald Trump elected US President: What future for TPP?

Actually, there is still another opportunity, that is, after the Presidential election, the US Congress still has one final session before ceding power to the new Congress. And President Obama's administration is continuing the final efforts so that TPP can be approved at this session.

Just a few days ago, President Obama's administration issued a warning about the dangers if the US Congress does not approve the TPP. “We are doing everything we can to maximize the chances of getting the Agreement passed,” US Trade Representative Michael Froman also said.

Previously, when visiting Vietnam last May, President Obama confidently said that TPP would be approved within his term. "I am very confident we will pass the Agreement. The reason is because it is the right thing to do. It is good for the country, good for America, good for the region and good for the world," Mr. Obama said.

If TPP is passed at the final session of the US Congress, it will be joy for the 12 TPP member economies. However, talking to the Investment Newspaper, expert Bui Kien Thanh said that although neither Mr. Donald Trump nor the person who lost in the recent election - Ms. Hilary Clinton, supported the TPP, making it very difficult for the National Assembly to pass it, the situation may be different after the election.

"After the election, the political situation will calm down, the new President may have a different stance than when he was a candidate. Furthermore, with strong lobbying campaigns from the business community, the TPP is still likely to be passed," Mr. Bui Kien Thanh said.

Same opinion, Professor-Dr.KH. Nguyen Mai said that we should not worry too quickly, but must monitor how after the election and inauguration as President, Donald Trump will announce his foreign policy, including how to implement free trade agreements (FTA). "Maybe, Mr. Trump will only make a few adjustments to make TPP beneficial for the United States. Economies, including Vietnam, should monitor these moves to proactively adapt," Professor-Dr.KH. Nguyen Mai said that, with the current trend, new generation FTAs ​​like TPP are very difficult to be affected.

"Possibly, the adoption of TPP will only be slower, because the newly established National Assembly will still have a lot of work to do. Therefore, it is unlikely that TPP will be approved in 2017 and thus, Vietnam needs to research and consider different options to proactively respond", Professor-Dr.KH. Nguyen Mai said.

However, another important thing is that in the context of the TPP's future, it is still quite unclear, according to Professor-TSKH. Nguyen Mai, Vietnam needs to pay attention to FTAs ​​with Korea, the Eurasian economic region, and the EU. "TPP is just one of the FTAs ​​that Vietnam has signed and will sign. Therefore, we cannot neglect the three FTAs ​​mentioned above because of the delay with TPP.

"These three markets alone are too good for Vietnam. Let's find ways to take advantage of the opportunities brought by these FTAs", Professor-TSKH. Nguyen Mai said and once again emphasized the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) - officially established on December 31, 2015, to affirm that Vietnamese businesses, even Vietnamese policy-making agencies, should not be too "engrossed" in TPP, forgetting that AEC is already a reality.

Regarding AEC integration, recent information said that Vietnam may have begun to pay the price for not carefully preparing to join the AEC. Therefore, instead of increasing exports as expected, in the first 10 months of this year, exports to the ASEAN market decreased by 7.4% over the same period.

It is true that TPP promises to bring many opportunities for Vietnam in promoting trade and investment cooperation between Vietnam and member economies. However, when the TPP is not yet certain to be approved, it is necessary to pay more attention to other FTAs ​​to have adaptive solutions to make good use of opportunities.